Rantings: GAMING! IN THE FUTURE!

Today, we'll discuss the future of games, as I see them. It's an interesting subject; the entirety of games as a commercial venture is only about 35 years old, 40 at the most. Most people describe the current systems (Playstation 3, Xbox 360, and Wii,) as seventh generation. Given that most generations are about 5 years or so long, that's not very long at all. Imagine this industry when that time is doubled, and the industry is as long as a common life span. How will things look? Given that we're already seeing diminishing returns, graphically, how will things change per generation?

Let's pick a hypothetical time to start with. We'll double the number of generations, tossing us at about 2040-2045. Let's assume, of course, that humanity hasn't wiped itself out, civilization hasn't ended, we reasonably fixed global warming, peak oil, and other potential crises.

First of all, what will happen to the various console, PC, and handheld markets? Who will win? Well, for starters, they all will win. Because they will all be the same. Yes, 35 years of improvements to the industry will make hardware minimized to the point where anything most people need can fit into a device the size of an iPod. Actually, it could be even smaller and more portable. I am after all both a futurist and a transhumanist; I can see the hardware going from simply portable into fully cybernetic. People carry around cell phones, word processors, internet searching, email, instant messaging, video games, music players, video players, GPS, and more into a single device/implant. And the graphics for games and such will be as close to photorealistic as any can desire.

Of course, there's the problem of the two inch screen. Games could be as realistic as they want, but they still lack the appeal of giant screens. There are two options. The optimist in me hopes that not only are the devices built in, but their interactive elements are completely neurological. So we see the games and videos as close as possible because they are being shown directly in our eyes. Plan B, of course, is not nearly as cool. Instead, "consoles" are simply adapters that connect to our portable systems when at home, letting transfer the video and audio directly to the more advanced systems at home. This latter method, admittedly, is better for social events.

What about controls? Well, if output is fully neurological, why not make input the same? In other words, controllers in this format are extinct, from the keyboard setup of computers to the esoteric controllers with a dozen buttons to Nintendo's more surreal inputs. You simply think what your protagonist does, making the game all about strategy and rapid reaction, not figuring out controller combinations and what each button does.

Unsurprisingly, interactivity, multi-player, and online components will be more important. I'm not saying that narrative will be dead, nor single-player gameplay. As my early blogs suggest, this would nearly kill all my interest in the industry. But cooperative and competitive gameplay will be more important, and some elements are nearly essential in every game. Another option is spectator mode, splitting narrative gameplay between those eager to play the game and those who simply treat it as a television series/movie and can watch people from across the globe play the game for them. Some games will even be released in serialized formats, with another hour or so worth of "chapters" released every week. What you won't see are the games that require hours of grinding or four-hour long epic quests. Save-anywhere will, in some way, become the standard, though there will be steps to correct for the problem of saving and loading every three steps to prevent any threat, and the rise of difficulty made to counter that. People just won't have the time and interest in this sort of thing, and nobody wants two take three hours doing nothing when they could just bound into another game.

Finally, we come to issues of business, rival companies, and how much games themselves cost. I think hardware manufacturers will continue to have a rivalry, much like the modern Nintendo vs. Sony vs. Microsoft of our era. That, of course, assumes that there's enough of a reason for them to exist; if there literally are no differences to be had with hardware, at least at a reasonable price, then nobody will bother and switch to software. This will be more like our DVD and other video storage circumstance, where there eventually is only one winner. What will certainly be extinct are normal, physical game and video stores. Most things will be downloaded these days, though some people will still buy collector's editions, but even then most people will order online.

As for pricing, games can be bought at various rates, but I don't see advertising as replacing costs entirely. People, frankly, hate ads, and they will be looking for ways to bypass or ignore them by then. So people will be getting games in one of three ways; in one single purchase, making it less like modern games and more like DVD collections of a television series, in a series of micropayments per level or element, again much like the old shareware system and which I think will work for serialized games based on television shows, and finally optional payments. This last system is used in Korea already, and it works fine as long as the elements aren't part of obligatory gameplay. It can even be used to let people customize and alter the game world itself. Imagine how much people would play to, say, create a city or a monster in a massively multiplayer game? It wouldn't work for every game, but it would be a great way to make open world games truly the player's story. It can even be used to narrative games; suddenly an epic story has new monsters and bosses, or even major plot twists, as altered by the players. Of course, there has to be some quality control!

If indeed narrative games, epic stories, actual character development, and other elements I consider essential do remain, I think this will be a golden future. More importantly, with the graphics chase done and designs efficient to the point where game development isn’t prohibitively expensive, we can finally see the respect among the mainstream of gaming as an art form. After all, at this point, almost everyone alive grew up with games, and the only thing more heart-warming than seeing another generation of kids playing games is realizing that retirees are doing the exact same thing.